2026 Iran–United States crisis
This article may incorporate text from a large language model. (February 2026) |
| 2026 Iran–United States crisis | |||||||
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| Part of the reactions to the 2025–2026 Iranian protests and the Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present) | |||||||
Location of United States in orange, and Iran in green. | |||||||
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| Parties | |||||||
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Supported by: |
Proxies: | ||||||
| Commanders and leaders | |||||||
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| Units involved | |||||||
| Strength | |||||||
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40,000-50,000 troops stationed in the Middle East Carrier Strike Group 3 led by USS Abraham Lincoln Military bases in Qatar, UAE and Iraq 40 million Iranian protesters (as per European intelligence) |
960,000 troops Many military bases Proxies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen | ||||||
| Casualties and losses | |||||||
| More than 30,000 Iranian rotesters (alleged by Trump) | 3 (2 civilians and 1 soldier) | ||||||
Since 13 January 2026, tensions between Iran and the United States have intensified amid Iran's ongoing crackdown on nationwide protests against the Iranian government. On 13 January, Iranian officials warned they were "ready for war" after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened potential military action in response to the growing death toll and mass detentions linked to the protests.[4] The United States began amassing air and naval assets in the region at a level not seen since the outset of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.[5]
The U.S. government signaled that airstrikes remained an option, emphasizing that all responses were under consideration while maintaining that diplomacy was still preferred.[6]
Regional actors, including Qatar, cautioned that any escalation could have severe consequences for the Middle East.
The crisis unfolded against the backdrop of Iran's deepening economic collapse and internal unrest, which had begun in late 2025 and continued into early 2026.[7]
Background
[edit]United States−Iran tensions
[edit]The escalation of the Twelve-Day War in 2025, combined with United States strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, had a major influence on the crisis. Throughout 2025, Israel intensified its campaign of covert and overt operations against Iranian military infrastructure, missile sites, and Revolutionary Guard assets in Syria and inside Iran itself. These actions deepened Iran's sense that it was under sustained external assault, pushing Iranian leaders toward a more militarized defensive posture. When the United States conducted its own strikes on Iranian nuclear‑associated targets, Iran interpreted this as confirmation that the governments in Washington and Jerusalem were an existential threat to the Islamic Republic.[8]
Iranian protests
[edit]In the aftermath of 13 January, Iran's internal situation remained marked by an economic crisis due to sanctions and persistent public dissent. The country continued to experience high inflation, currency depreciation, and shortages of essential goods, all of which contributed to growing frustration among Iranians. Protest activity, which had begun in the months earlier, persisted across multiple provinces and involved students, workers, and residents of economically marginalized regions. Demonstrations later expanded to include broader political demands, including complete regime change.[9][10][11]
Iranian authorities responded with an intensified security posture, including the deployment of paramilitary forces from Iraq.[12] Reports from human rights organizations described large‑scale massacres, arrests, increased surveillance, and the deployment of security forces to areas with sustained protest activity.[13][14] Internet restrictions, including temporary shutdowns and censorship, were used to limit communication and hinder the organization of demonstrations. State media framed the unrest as the result of foreign interference by parties such as the United States and Israel.[15]
The domestic pressures also affected Iran's political landscape. Hardline factions within the government advocated for stronger measures to suppress dissent. Public dissatisfaction with economic management and governance contributed to declining trust in state institutions, further complicating the government's efforts to project unity during a period of heightened international tension.[16]
United States policy
[edit]US Government approach
[edit]In the period following 13 January, the United States adopted a more assertive public posture toward Iran while continuing to emphasize that it sought to avoid direct conflict. Senior officials within the Trump administration issued a series of statements outlining Washington's position. President Donald Trump reiterated that the United States was prepared to respond to any actions perceived as threatening U.S. personnel or regional stability, while also stating that military force would be used only if necessary. His remarks framed the situation as a test of deterrence, emphasizing that Iran would be held accountable for further escalation.[17]
The US Secretary of state Marco Rubio underscored this approach by calling on Iran to halt its crackdown on domestic protests and to comply with international obligations. In public briefings, the Secretary described Iran's internal unrest as evidence of widespread dissatisfaction and urged Tehran to "choose de‑escalation" through diplomatic channels. The National Security Advisor similarly warned that the United States would not tolerate attacks on its regional partners or interests, calling out Iran's actions as destabilizing and inconsistent with international norms.[18]
Congressional debates
[edit]The escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions after 13 January prompted extensive debate within the United States Congress, where lawmakers expressed differing views on the appropriate scope and direction of U.S. policy. Members of Congress who favored a more assertive approach argued that Iran's regional activities and domestic repression required stronger deterrence measures. These legislators supported maintaining or expanding sanctions, increasing military readiness in the region, and issuing clear warnings that attacks on U.S. personnel or allies would result in a forceful response. They contended that a firm posture was necessary to prevent further escalation and to counter what they viewed as destabilizing behavior by Iran.[19]
Some bipartisan lawmakers advocated for a more restrained strategy, emphasizing the risks of miscalculation and the potential for unintended conflict. These members called for renewed diplomatic engagement, greater transparency regarding the administration's decision‑making, and adherence to congressional oversight mechanisms related to the use of military force. Some raised concerns about the legal basis for any potential military action, citing the need for updated authorizations and clearer definitions of U.S. objectives. They argued that sustained diplomatic efforts, rather than increased military pressure, offered the best path to reducing tensions and addressing long‑standing disputes.[20]
No clear consensus emerged.[21]
Diplomacy
[edit]Further U.S. policy discussions after 13 January also focused on the security of American personnel and facilities across the Middle East. The Department of Defense reviewed force protection measures at bases in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf, citing concerns about potential retaliation from Iranian‑aligned groups. Pentagon officials emphasized that any attack on U.S. forces would prompt a direct response, reflecting a broader effort to deter proxy activity without escalating into open conflict. Analysts noted that these measures were consistent with previous periods of heightened tension, during which the United States sought to balance deterrence with the risk of miscalculation.[22]
At the diplomatic level, the United States intensified consultations with European and regional partners to coordinate messaging and assess potential avenues for de‑escalation. American diplomats engaged with NATO allies, Gulf Cooperation Council members, and other partners to reinforce shared concerns about Iran's internal repression and regional activities. These discussions aimed to maintain a unified international stance while exploring options for renewed dialogue. Despite these efforts, progress remained limited, as longstanding disagreements over sanctions, nuclear policy, and regional security continued to shape the broader context of U.S.–Iran relations.[23]
Military actions and movements
[edit]On 13 January, senior national security officials met at the White House to review potential military options, including airstrikes, cyber operations, and targeted raids, as part of the administration's response to Iran's violent suppression of demonstrations.[24][25]
The U.S. military began repositioning assets to strengthen its regional posture. By 25 January, an American aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) was deployed toward the Gulf, accompanied by additional Navy and Air Force assets. This movement was described as a precautionary measure amid fears of further escalation and was part of a broader effort to deter Iranian actions.[5][26][27]

Throughout late January, President Donald Trump continued to weigh expanded military options. Reports on 29–30 January indicated that he had been presented with additional plans, including possible commando operations targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. These deliberations occurred alongside ongoing concerns about Iran's mass arrests and internal unrest, which U.S. officials cited as contributing factors in the heightened military readiness.[24]
On 14 February, Trump stated he will dispatch a second carrier strike, the USS Gerald R. Ford, will be on the way to the Middle East with Carrier Strike Group 12 after completing operations in the Caribbean as part of Operation Southern Spear to support the USS Abraham Lincoln. Arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford marked the new height in deployment of U.S. Navy assets during the Middle Eastern crisis.[28][5]
Top administration national security officials met on 18 February in the White House Situation Room to discuss the situation in Iran, a person familiar with the meeting said. Trump was also briefed on the 18th by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about their indirect talks with Iran that occurred a day earlier. It was not clear if Trump would make a decision by 21st and 22nd.[29]
On the same day, anonymous sources informed CNN that the US military was prepared to strike Iran as early as 21 February, although President Donald Trump had yet to make a final decision on whether he would authorize such actions. One source, however, cautioned that Trump has privately argued both for and against military action and, polling advisers and allies on what the best course of action is.
On 19 February 2026, according to reports The US could launch military strikes on Iran within days as the White House issued a warning that Tehran should make a deal. Trump has sent warships, tankers and submarines to the Middle East to be ready for potential strikes as soon as 21 February, sources told CBS.
Threatening speeches and posts
[edit]In the final week of January, President Donald Trump used Truth Social to issue a series of public warnings directed at Iran, marking one of the most visible escalations in U.S. messaging during the crisis. On 28 January 2026, Trump declared that "a massive Armada is heading to Iran", describing it as moving "with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose." Trump warned that if Iran did not agree to a deal, "the next attack will be far worse", referencing previous U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.[30][31]
Several of the posts referenced previous U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites which Trump cited as evidence of Washington's willingness to act if necessary. He warned that any further escalation by Iran could prompt a more severe response, presenting the situation as a narrowing window for Tehran to alter its course.[32]
When speaking at Fort Bragg on 13 February, Trump declared that regime change would be "the best thing that could happen".[33]
Trump said on a post on Truth Social, when referring to the Chagos dispute, UK air bases at RAF Fairford and the shared base at Diego Garcia in the British Indian Ocean Territory would be used by the US in an attack on Iran should Iran not agree to a nuclear deal.[34][35] However, the United Kingdom has reportedly blocked Trump's request to use their air bases, leading to the latter withdrawing his support for the Chagos Islands deal.[36]
While some US sources, including Senator Lindsey Graham told Axios that the US might need more time to prepare on 18 February, others disagreed. "The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks," one anonymous Trump advisor told Axios. United States officials stated that Iran has two weeks to submit a detailed proposal.[37]
President Trump said that he's prepared to decide whether to attack Iran within the next 10 days — after deploying a second carrier strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Middle East. "We may have to take it a step further, or we may not. Maybe we're going to make a deal. You are going to be finding out over the next, probably, 10 days," Trump said at a meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington.[38]
Iranian response
[edit]Verbal response
[edit]Senior Iranian officials dismissed U.S. warnings as psychological warfare and accused Washington of exploiting Iran's domestic unrest for strategic gain. Government spokespeople reiterated that Iran would not alter its policies under foreign pressure and warned that any military action by the United States would be met with what they described as a "decisive" and "regret‑inducing" response. These statements were accompanied by assurances that Iran's armed forces remained fully prepared to counter external threats.[39] Iran has threatened the U.S. in comments made by officials such as Ali Khamenei.
Attempts to control protests
[edit]Iranian authorities intensified efforts to control the internal situation. Security forces expanded their presence in major cities, and state media portrayed the protests as foreign‑influenced attempts to destabilize the country. Officials framed the unrest as part of a broader campaign orchestrated by hostile governments, arguing that the United States and Israel was using the demonstrations to justify increased military pressure.[40]
Diplomatic response
[edit]Diplomatically, Iran maintained that it remained open to dialogue but insisted that any negotiations must respect its sovereignty and security interests. Iranian representatives criticized U.S. sanctions and military deployments as provocative and counterproductive, urging regional states to avoid aligning with what Tehran described as destabilizing American policies. On 31 January, top Iranian security official Ali Larijani said on X that work on a framework for negotiations with the United States is progressing.[41]
Military and movements
[edit]Iranian state media reported increased activity among the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including the repositioning of units responsible for air defense, missile operations, and internal security. Analysts noted that these movements were consistent with Iran's standard response during periods of heightened tension, aimed at demonstrating preparedness without provoking direct confrontation.[42]
Iran also conducted limited military exercises in several regions, emphasizing missile capabilities and rapid‑deployment forces. These drills were framed by Iranian officials as routine but were widely interpreted as a message to external actors, particularly the United States, that Iran retained the capacity to respond to any attack. Satellite imagery during this period indicated heightened activity at several IRGC bases, including the movement of mobile missile launchers and increased aircraft dispersal at military airfields, measures typically associated with efforts to reduce vulnerability to potential strikes.[43]
Naval forces in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz also began movements. The IRGC Navy increased patrols and monitored U.S. naval movements closely, while Iranian officials reiterated that the country would defend its territorial waters against any perceived encroachment. Although no direct confrontations were reported, the combination of heightened naval activity, missile readiness, and internal security deployments contributed to a broader atmosphere of military alertness within Iran during the late‑January escalation.[44]
On 3 February 2026, six IRGC Navy gunboats attempted to stop and seize a US tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The Stena Imperative tanker ignored their demands and continued toward the Arabian Sea under the escort of the USS McFaul (DDG 74). Moreover, a US F-35 fighter jet shot down an Iranian Shahed 139 drone approaching the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.[45][46]
On 5 February, Iran's IRGC Navy announced it had seized two foreign oil tankers near Farsi Island in the Persian Gulf and transferred them to the port of Bushehr, claiming both vessels were involved in fuel smuggling operations.
During the second round of nuclear talks in Geneva on 17 February, Khamenei threatened the United States warships in the area, stating Iran is "capable of sinking...[them]."[47] In addition the Strait of Hormuz was closed for several hours during a live military fire drill.[48] Khamenei said that even though the US military may be the strongest in the world, "the strongest army in the world can sometimes be slapped so hard it cannot get up."
Proxies responses and other allied responses
[edit]Abu Hussein al‑Hamidawi the leader of Kata'ib Hezbollah, an Iraqi group part of the Popular Mobilization Forces reaffirmed its support for Iran, warning of a "total war" if Iran is attacked by the U.S.[49]
The leader of Hezbollah made a statement saying that they will choose whether or not to intervene, and is "concerned" about confronting the U.S. He said that he is "not neutral".[50]
The Taliban-led Afghanistan called on both sides to peacefully resolve their differences, adding that that they would support Iran if the U.S. attacks it.[51][52]
Negotiations
[edit]The United States demanded that Iran transfer its remaining 400 kg of enriched uranium, halt its nuclear weapons development, restrict its ballistic missile program, and end support for groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.[53]
Ahead of the talks, Iran increased regional diplomacy, with Ali Larijani visiting Moscow, Abbas Araqchi holding consultations in Istanbul, and Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani traveling to Tehran.[54] Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar worked to arrange U.S.–Iran talks, with Iran requesting Oman as a neutral venue.[55][56]
On 6 February, indirect US–Iran talks were held in Muscat, mediated by Omani foreign minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi. Both sides described the nuclear-focused discussions as a "good start" and agreed to continue engagement despite deep mistrust.[57]
International reactions
[edit]Europe
[edit]European Union
[edit]- Officials expressed "deep concern over the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran" and urged both sides to avoid actions that could trigger a wider conflict.[58]
- EU security analysts warned that the crisis risked "a dangerous nuclear proliferation cascade" if diplomacy continued to collapse.
- The EU labelled the IRGC a terrorist organisation on 29 January 2026.[31]
Germany
[edit]- German policymakers stated that "the combination of Iran's internal repression and U.S. military signaling leaves almost no margin for error."[59]
France
[edit]- French officials called for restraint, saying "the region cannot absorb another major conflict, especially one involving nuclear‑sensitive facilities."[60]
See also
[edit]- Reactions to the 2025–2026 Iranian protests
- Operation Southern Spear
- United States strikes on Iranian nuclear sites
- 2026 United States intervention in Venezuela
- Greenland crisis
- 2026 Cuban crisis
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